Advancing Space Weather Forecasts

“BEFORE GOING HIKING OR SURFING, you usually want to check the weather,” said Veronica Bindi, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa (UH Mānoa) Department of Physics & Astronomy chair and professor. “The same goes for when you’re in space. You want to make sure astronauts, instruments and other assets are safe from harmful, inclement solar weather.”

Thanks to a four-year, $2.5 million grant from the National Science Foundation, UH Mānoa is working on enhancing its understanding and predictions of space weather patterns that pose significant risks not only in space, but on Earth. 

The project, led by Bindi, will measure the most powerful particles in space through a new Haleakalā Neutron Monitor Station (HLEA) on Maui and a space weather station on O‘ahu.

An Ideal Location

As the newest of approximately 50 ground neutron monitor stations around the world and only one in the Pacific Ocean, the HLEA will provide groundbreaking new data by filling a wide, 162-degree gap in the global neutron monitor network between in Mexico and Thailand.

“In addition to being nicely located in the middle of this gap, our 10,000-foot altitude at the summit of Haleakalā and proximity to the equator allows us to capture more particles from longer daily sun exposure and less seasonal variations,” said Bindi. “All of this allows us to capture and deliver new sets of data to enhance our modeling and calibration of all global neutron monitor stations and space weather detection systems.”

Upcoming Solar Maximum

Initially targeted for completion in 2025, Bindi and her team expedited their efforts to launch the HLEA and space monitoring center in 2024 in order to collect data from the impending solar maximum of Solar Cycle 25, initially forecasted for 2025.

Occurring once during the Sun’s 11-year solar cycle, a solar maximum marks the period when the Sun is most active. During this time, the intensity and frequency of visible sunspots reach their peak and is characterized by more frequent and intense solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These colossal explosions heat up to several million degrees Fahrenheit and release shockwaves of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) traveling up to 180 thousand miles per second, and carrying as much energy as nearly ten billion megatons of TNT.

Major Impacts

Upon reaching the Earth’s magnetosphere (a magnetic field that protects the planet from harmful solar radiation), CMEs can trigger geomagnetic storms that generate induced currents, which can disturb or damage satellites and electrical power grids. They can also corrode gas and other pipelines, and increase radiation exposure risks for commercial and other aircraft flying at high altitudes. The strongest solar storm ever recorded, known as the Carrington Event of 1859, wreaked havoc on telecommunications around the world and precipitated northern lights as far south as Hawai‘i.

“With today’s heavy reliance on technology, the global impact of a similar solar storm today could be catastrophic and cost billions of dollars,” Bindi emphasized. “Everything from using our phones, laptops, credit cards, GPS and financial transactions to a lot of our infrastructure depends on satellites and other technologies in space. Studying the Sun’s high-energy particles and developing solar radiation alert systems can protect and sustain assets in space, and advance our resilience against space weather hazards on Earth.”

In addition to SEPs released from the Sun, Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) emitted from supernovae also pose severe radiation hazards to astronauts and technologies in space. Prolonged exposure to SEPs and GCRs can increase the risk of cancer, cell mutation, heart attacks and central nervous system changes. They can also disrupt and significantly degrade electronic equipment in space over time.

“Predicting and mitigating the effects of space radiation is crucial for the safety and success of long-duration space missions. Studying space weather and how radiation varies with solar activity and time can mitigate its effects. By monitoring space weather events, we can improve our understanding of space weather dynamics and correlation to radiation levels to help us better prepare and respond to their impacts in space and on Earth,” explained Bindi.

Collecting and Analyzing Data

The HLEA will allow Bindi and her team to measure the flux and variations of space particles. This data will help to unfold the processes and conditions prevalent in the solar atmosphere and provide a proxy of the space radiation environment and space weather.

Once set up, the HLEA will be calibrated to continuously detect and measure Solar Neutron Particles (SNPs) and neutrons generated by the interaction of SEPs and GCRs. Produced in solar flares, SNPs retain direct information about nuclear reactions near the acceleration site at the Sun. Since they are unaffected by the interplanetary magnetic field — unlike SEPs which slow, bend and change directions once released — SNPs can be detected up to 10 minutes before SEPs. This provides an advance warning to astronauts to protect their onboard electronics by powering them down.

Enhancing Data Calibration

In addition to collecting data from HLEA, the new space weather monitoring center at UH Mānoa will calibrate data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites, as well as the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) ­— a particle physics experiment module on the International Space Station, accessible only to Bindi’s team and another from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“Integrating AMS and HLEA data allows us to expand our global instrument capabilities for more comprehensive and precise space radiation and weather monitoring,” said Bindi. “By improving the calibration and consistency of neutron monitor networks worldwide, we can achieve a more unified and reliable set of observations, fostering better international collaboration and data sharing. This will help to accelerate our understanding of space radiation or particle behavior from space to Earth, and further advance our ability to predict and mitigate the effects of space weather on technological systems and human activities.”